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i have few questions about coronavirus   [OT]

By: Laurent Duchastel     Montréal, Québec  
Date: Mar 13,2020 at 08:31
In Response to: i have few questions about coronavirus (Ryan)

> hi
> i have few questions about coronavirus
> they say it is an influenza, bad cold.
> they said the normal influenza's fatality rate is 0.1% ~ 0.2%
> and the death rate due to coronavirus is about 0.2% ~ 0.4%
> if it is just twice as bad, why bother worrying much like the world
> today?
> just catch one and get over it, i might say
> and they also said coronavirus maybe or most likely came from chinese
> eating bats
> if so then, is it an influenze or plague like a bubonic plague?
> if it is a plague then 0.2~0.4% fatality rate is very low.
> how can a flu or a catching cold come from other animals unless it is a
> plague?
> as i know , cold virus is always present around you
> ya ya, the world economy is dead, this is pretty sick to me.

I'm the Director of Professional Development at the School of Public Health of University of Montreal, the largest public health institution in the francophonie. So, this is what I've been told by my experts:

Fatality rate is anywhere between 1% to 6%. It changes a lot as data is still pouring in, and varies geographically for a variety of complex and intertwined factors: structural ones, logistical one, density of dwellings, etc. Perhaps also genetically ones.
It seems there is a consensus actually for fatality rate around 2.3%

Meanwhile, the contagion rate (R0, Basic reproduction number) is 2.0, twice the one of normal influenza which is 1.0. Epidemiological projections say half the world population could be exposed to COVID-19 in the next 24 months without drastic measures.

If these figures are to stay valid, that would mean 92 millions deaths worldwide...

And as the fact that most death are above 50+, this is terrifying, but *strictly on a demographic and economic* point of view, this will not have the same long-term effect in population pyramids around the world as the Spanish flu or the plague had, as they both kill young people in the reproductive years, which is not the case here. (Please do not take this last remark out of context).

**NOW**, there are **many** unknown variables here. When a vaccine/cure will be ready? Can we slow down the contagion rate significantly? Is the fatality rate will proved to be lower?

We can actually end worldwide with less than 100,000, or 50,000 or even less with all the drastic measures actually taken.

Laurent Duchastel


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